Approximately three weeks into the general elections, this is an excellent time to take stock of where we started and are today. 

Since 2004, Indian general elections have been conducted between April and May. Data from 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019 reveal a trend of declining voter turnout as polling extends into the hotter month of May. For instance, in 2019, voter turnout dropped from 69.5% in April to 64.8% in May. 

This year, the seventh and final phase of the Lok Sabha election is June 1. So far, voter turnout has varied significantly across states. Gujarat recorded a turnout of 55%, while Karnataka saw a higher turnout of 70.4%. The Hindi heartland states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh witnessed comparatively lower voter participation, with turnout rates of 56.5% and 57.3%, respectively. The reduced voter turnout in the Hindi belt has sparked speculation about its potential implications. Some have proposed that it signals declining enthusiasm for the BJP, although such conclusions might be premature.

Heading into the polls, the BJP talked confidently about 400 seats. To reach this number, the party needed to keep its support strong in places where it usually does well while at the same time winning over new areas. Naturally, the plan was to focus on minority communities in some states and change things in states like Assam to get more Hindu votes. 

Since the start of the elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has resorted to making statements that seem out of line with his usual rhetoric. 

In a television interview with Times Now on May 6, the Prime Minister urged the Muslim community to contemplate the future, stressing that he holds no hostility towards Muslims or Islam. He stated:

“Muslim community is evolving across the globe…But in India, they’ve made it about Hindu-Muslim. Those who are doing this, I want to appeal before the Muslim community, please think about the lives of your children. Please think about your future. I don’t want any community to live like bonded labourers just because somebody is always fearmongering.”

In the interview, Modi defended his actions, pointing to ending triple talaq, providing healthcare benefits, and facilitating COVID-19 vaccinations as evidence of his support for all communities. He criticized the Congress for spreading fear among minorities and denied bias against Muslims, stressing his government’s focus on the welfare of all citizens. He urged the Muslim community to evaluate their progress and not succumb to divisive politics.

In Telangana, the Prime Minister launched a direct attack on the Congress party, accusing them of abruptly halting their criticism of Ambani and Adani once the Lok Sabha elections were announced. Modi questioned the reason behind this sudden change and speculated whether it was due to undisclosed financial transactions or secret agreements with the Congress party. He accused the Congress party of pursuing appeasement politics, alleging their intentions to provide full reservations to Muslims, contrary to Dr. B. R. Ambedkar’s principles. 

The moot point is: Is the Prime Minister feeling the heat that his party’s path to winning big might be more challenging than it seems? Why is he deflecting from the real issues of unemployment, inflation, and income inequality?

In addition to the scorching temperatures, ordinary citizens are increasingly expressing frustration and beginning to voice their opposition to the nonsensical rhetoric on social media.

Opinion polls for the 2024 elections have stated that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will win by a significant margin, with estimates ranging from 330 to 390 seats. However, experts have cautioned that past polls have sometimes been wrong. This was also evident in 2004 when, despite the BJP’s confidence and the “India Shining” campaign, the NDA did not secure victory as projected by the polls. After returning from an election campaign in Lucknow, Atal Bihari Vajpayee had confided in his aide Shiv Kumar Pareek, saying: 

“Sarkar to gayi. Hum haar rahe hain (The government is going. We are losing).”

Leaders like Atal Bihari Vajpayee are rare; he never stooped to low-level politics. His legacy extends beyond his tenure as Prime Minister. He embodied an exemplary model of an opposition leader, a quality missing these days. He stood alongside governments during crucial moments since our independence, including supporting the Narasimha Rao government when India required a unified front at the United Nations.

India’s current political landscape, driven by expediency, religion, and caste dynamics, breeds opportunistic leaders and transforms politics into a money-driven vote-bank business. This flawed electoral system serves as the root cause of this issue.

The pressing question remains: where do we go from here? How do we find leaders who can weather the storm and steer the nation? After all, a leader is not a consumer product to be produced in a factory on a “made-to-order” basis; they emerge from complex circumstances and forces. They prioritize the nation over personal or party interests. As we continue on this electoral journey, let us remain hopeful for the emergence of such leaders.

• By Hari Jaisingh